Preview: KU vs. West Virginia

Source: isportsweb.com

The Vegas line puts the West Virginia Mountaineers as 7 1/2 point favorites for today's matchup, which is the closest spread Kansas has faced as the underdog since the Rice game, and the most favorable match-up since the home game against Louisiana Tech in the third game of the season.

West Virginia has been bitten hard by the injury bug this season. In last week's game, the Mountaineers lost linebacker Jared Barber with an ACL tear, safety KJ Dillon to dehydration complications. Clint Trickett has had concussion issues, and is listed as questionable for the game. I'd expect to see backup Paul Millard fielding the snaps. Millard is a serviceable backup, but will be one of the least-imposing QB's that Kansas has faced in conference play. Millard is a lot less mobile than Trickett, and is turnover-prone. I expect Clint Bowen to dial up the blitz a few times today to make Millard try to beat them.

Charles Sims and Dreamius Smith have been some of the best running backs in the conference this year. They both average over 4.5 yards per carry, and have found the end-zone on the ground 13 times this season. If Kansas can force third and longs, it will really inhibit the WVU offense that is predicated on the run.

The West Virginia defense is improved over last season, but a combination of injuries, and the strength of schedule contribute to the 31.7 points allowed per game. Opponents are converting almost 50% of third downs against the Mountaineers, so this might give Cozart a chance to summon his inner Todd Reesing.

That said, Kansas hasn't scored over 20 points in eight straight contests, which is one of the worst stretches the team has had, offensively speaking, since the 80's, so if they want to win this game, it might have to hold WVU to 4 scores or less.

Kansas could have a significant advantage in the punting and kicking games, and if they win the field position battle on this windy, overcast day, this could become a sloppily close game.

Prediction:
West Virginia 28
Kansas 17

I could easily see this being a game where Kansas has possession of the football late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win, but that might be just where the Mountaineers want this game headed. Make this anemic offense beat you. Cozart gives Kansas a more formidable look, but he is going to have to make plays with his arm in order to win this one. If Tony Pierson can get enough touches and Cozart can convert a few extra third downs, though, the 27 game conference losing streak ends today.