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Saturday, November 9, 2013

Preview: KU @ Oklahoma State

Source: Bleacher Report
And the gauntlet continues for KU. As we are all well aware of by now, the Big 12 Conference allows no time to for you to sit down and catch your breath. Today, the 2-6 (0-5) Kansas Jayhawks travel to Stillwater, Oklahoma to take on the 14th ranked, 7-1 (4-1) Oklahoma State Cowboys. It marks the Jayhawks's first trip to Stillwater since 2011, when they grabbed an early 7-0 lead over the heavily favored 6th ranked Cowboys, only to surrender 56 straight first half points, losing 70-28. Hopefully the coaching changes and player turnover will make this year is a slightly different story. I'd be happy with a game more like last year's version: Oklahoma State won the game on a wet afternoon in Lawrence, but by the skin of their teeth.
Last season, the Jayhawks held the Cowboys to 20 points in the 20-14 loss, which is still the fewest points an OSU team has scored since January 2nd, 2010 in a 21-7 loss to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl. In that game, Kansas actually out-gained the Cowboys (398 to 371), had 5 more first downs, and won the time of possession battle by 7 minutes. If it weren't for a roughing the punter penalty on OSU's final drive, Kansas would have had a chance to drive the field and win the game with a touchdown.

Unfortunately, thanks to a combination of a putrid Kansas offense and a more stable OSU offense, I don't see that playing out again this year, especially in Boone Pickens Stadium.

Clint Chelf, the OSU quarterback, is the heartbeat of the Cowpokes's offense. He gives the Pistol Pete a threat both through the passing game, and to our chagrin as Jayhawk fans, on the ground. Chelf had a sixty yard touchdown run against Texas Tech last week, so he needs to be respected. The problem is that running back Desmond Rolland is averaging 5 yards a pop, and Chelf and Rolland compliment one another on the read option. I guess it's really just a matter of Kansas picking its poison. And that still leaves Josh Stewart unaccounted for.

Josh Stewart has a wonderful story to tell about overcoming adversity, and I really suggest that you read into it. He is one of those players in the conference that you root for on a week to week basis, except when he is playing the Hawks. It doesn't really matter if I root for him or not, because I'm afraid he might have a day in a few hours regardless of the moral support I do/don't give him. The 5-10, 185 pound wide-receiver has 40 receptions for 510 yards on the season even with all the added attention on him.

The OSU offense as a whole is averaging 40.5 points per game, which is good 15th best in the country, but it doesn't do it by racking up a ton of yards. The passing game puts up about 260 yards per game (39th best) and 180 yards per game on the ground (55th best), so just by looking at the numbers, they are very efficient and get a lot of bang for the buck, if you will.

This will be yet another challenge for the Kansas defense, but the offense needs to bring something to the table if they want to keep this a game at halftime.

KU is averaging a measly 15.8 points per game in conference play, and Oklahoma State's defense is allowing, on average, 21.4 points per game.

Oklahoma State's defense ranks first in the Big 12 in rush defense giving up just 123 yards per game. KU is averaging 134 yards per game on the ground, so I'd imagine the numbers fall in line with the averages. In the passing game, OSU has allowed 255 yards per game, and Kansas averages 158 yards per game through the air, so this might be an opportunity for Jake Heaps and Montell Cozart to open up their passing playbook.

It really all boils down to how well the offensive line plays. The O-line's woes have plagued KU all season, but I have seen incremental progress throughout the past few games. With Tony Pierson back on the field, things should run a little more smoothly, but although Pierson gives KU speed on the edge, as good as he is, if he is getting hit in the backfield before he has time to hit the gas pedal, he won't go very far.

Prediction:
Oklahoma State 38
Kansas 14

This is the final game of the 3rd fourth of the season, and it might be one of the final "unwinnable" games that KU has on its schedule. If KU can keep this close past half-time, you should see a very motivated performance at home against West Virginia, but if you see OSU score at will and have a picnic in KU's backfield, there are no guarantees that KU will win another game this year.      

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