Week 1: vs. SDSU (FCS) 2011: 5-6

Source: GOJACKS.com

Today marks Part 1 of a 12 part series, breaking down the 2012 KU Football schedule. In this series, I hope to analyze each opposing team (positions, coaching, maybe a little obeisance to the mascot) and how they match up with KU. I don't feel terribly comfortable making predictions before the season has even started, but I'll give it a shot. It'll be fun.

First up on the schedule, a game set for September 1st with a team from Brookings, South Dakota, the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State.


Hold the phone. Before we get going with position matchups, intangibles, and predictions, let's settle something much, much more important. What the dickens is a Jackrabbit? I couldn't have told you minutes ago, but now, after seeing a picture of it, I'm certain that I've actually seen one in person before. I didn't know any better at the time, I must have mistook it for Luke Hochevar.

Source: Biomes of the World

But really, these Jackrabbits are interesting. Although, I wouldn't keep one as a pet, I respect it. It makes its habitat in the American desert, it is born with its eyes open, so it can survive on its own at a young age, it is camouflaged well to hide from predators such as raptors, eagles, rattlers, and coyotes, and my favorite: its large ears actually radiate heat to the sky while it rests in the shade, cooling itself. It may be small in stature, but it is an evolutionary giant.

Source: MVC Sports

Although it will likely be nice and toasty in Lawrence for kickoff, the only Jackrabbits coming to town this September will be the one's dressed in blue and yellow. So, it is time to shift our focus towards what exactly it is that they will be bringing.

Sitting at just 2-6 in late October of last year, and having lost 6 of their last 7 games, South Dakota State needed a spark. Things just weren't working as they were. The team was getting pounded into the ground on a weekly basis. There was no sign of improvement, so as you'd might expect, controversy ensued. When things aren't working for a football team, the fan favorite, nine times out of ten, becomes the backup quarterback. Kansas knows all too well about this.

Insert Freshman Austin Sumner, and suddenly the world becomes right again in Brookings. The Jacks ended the 2011 season on a three game winning streak, beating Missouri State, Southern Illinois, and Western Illinois, giving them some momentum to carry into the offseason. The team finished 5-6 and 4-4 in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Sumner highlighted the season with 2,382 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns to 9 interceptions, and 3 rushing touchdowns, playing in ten games, and starting the final eight, going 4-4 over that stretch. In the two games that he didn't start, the team lost by 53 and 34 points. In the 4 games that they lost when he was quarterback, the scores were much closer. 7, 10, 17, and 24 points. Sumner will be a player to watch.

Who he will throw to will be the question. SDSU graduated their top two receivers, Dale Moss and Aaron Rollin, so they will have to fill that void. Assuming that Sumner will need a few games to get in sync with his new teammates, this matchup favors Kansas, surprisingly. Especially since the Jacks have next to no rushing game, whatsoever. The team, AS A WHOLE, gained only 919 yards, averaging a meager 2.6 ypc.

The defense, however, allowed plenty of rushing yards. 2,240 yards to be exact, at almost 4.8 ypc. To put it in perspective, KU gave up 2,869 yards on the ground last year. So SDSU was only 600 yards better than one of the worst defenses ever... against FCS competition! If there ever was a game for Tony Pierson to shatter Eric Vann's record 98 yard run, by God and for the love of all that is holy, it's this one.

John Stieglemeier has coached the Jackrabbits for 15 years, going 88-66 over that span. He's certainly seen success, but Stieglemeier has gone just 10-12 in the past 2 seasons combined.

Intangibles won't be in South Dakota State's favor either. Charlie Weis, Dayne Crist, Mike Ragone, and Anthony McDonald, among others, will all be making their Jayhawk debut. Memorial Stadium should be sold out and rocking for the season opener.

Prediction: Kansas 40, South Dakota State 21

Kansas is 68-47-7 in season openers, and 87-31-4 in season openers at home. They are 7-2 in the last 9 home openers. The loss to the NDSU Bison was the first versus an FCS opponent since 1940. Lightning will not strike twice... promise. The last time Kansas faced South Dakota State was in 1947, when they beat them 86-6. 

KU is 41-24 in games played at home in the past 10 seasons, but were just 5-8 in games coached by Turner Gill. They are 31-10 against non-conference opponents in that stretch, but were just 4-3 under Gill. Gill is gone, so let's throw out those numbers, by all means. Point being, Kansas has been very good at home, historically speaking. 

KU will find a way to move the football early in the game, be it by the pass or by the run, and then they will be able to play off that and it will open up room for other parts of their offense. They may be a little slow out of the gate, but I imagine they will score at least 20 points in the first half. The defense will struggle to get off the field at times, bending for the large part of the game, but it won't break. Kansas wins pretty easily, but the score ends up being closer than expected.