Week 3: vs. TCU 2011: 11-2 (7-0)

Source: Athlon Sports

I'm trying to think of the last time a game this early in the season meant so much to Kansas Football. Georgia Tech in '10 was nice, South Florida in '08 was a big one... but were they "circled" on the schedule-- I don't know? Charlie Weis has made it pretty clear that he wants this one.

Kansas christens TCU into the Big 12, and needs to do so with a victory if it wants any chance at post-season play. Sure, it only marks the 1/4 point of the season, and there are a lot of games left to be played, but Kansas plays 6 of its next 9 on the road. 5 of the 6 road games in the Big 12. Here is how this one breaks down...

Source: Collegiate Living

It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Super Frog? Well, yes. I know, I know. If my life depended on it, I wouldn't turn to this guy either, but he is now a part of the Big 12, and although he isn't dashing, he sure is easier on the eyes than Truman the Tiger.

Horned Frogs are real creatures. They have a mean bite, they eat a lot, but can be kept as pets. So, Big Jay should be conscious of Super Frog, but no real need to be too edgy. He isn't this guy.

As for the game itself, TCU will be playing in their inaugural game in the Big 12 when they come to Lawrence, and although I am on tenterhooks, I am still having some trouble convincing myself that this is a conference game, and that it will carry an even greater magnitude. Now especially with it being the third game of the season, and sandwiched in between Rice and Northern Illinois, we, as fans, are going to have to convince ourselves that TCU is a Big 12 opponent. We have to come out, be loud, and stay for the game's entirety. I'm sure by now that Charlie Weis is convinced and the team is convinced. And I think that once the game kicks off, it won't take long to figure that out, because this is most certainly a Big 12 caliber team.

Starting quarterback Casey Pachall was a highly regarded quarterback coming out of high school. He had offers from teams all across the country, including from Rob Ianello, Charlie Weis, and Notre Dame. After waiting in the wings for Andy Dalton, Pachall started in all 13 games last season. He completed 228 of his 343 passes for a 66.5 completion percentage, 2921 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions, breaking Dalton's records for completions, completion percentage, and passing yards. He rushed for only 51 net yards, but scored a few touchdowns. He isn't a Geno Smith through the air, nor a Collin Klein on the ground, but Pachall will be more than enough to handle for the Kansas defense. I don't envision this going well.

Source: Bleacher Report

Ed Wesley, a 5'9", 200 pound tailback rushed for 726 yards last year, at 6.1 yards per pop, and 6 touchdowns. Waymon James tallied 884 yards at 7.2 per rush, and 6 touchdowns, and Matthew Tucker gained 702 yards, 5.7 per carry, and 12 touchdowns. It is a three-headed monster of a rushing attack, and they all bring a little different style...so it is safe to say that they are stacked at running back.

Skye Dawson, the offensive MVP of the Poinsettia Bowl 31-24 victory over Louisiana Tech, and Josh Boyce had strong seasons last year at wide-out for TCU, but redshirt freshman LaDarius Brown could be the best player on the depth chart, and he hasn't played a down yet. He is a strong, smooth athlete that will create mismatches against the Kansas defensive backs. There is a lot of speed on this roster, and Kansas is going to have to be gelling on defense in order to keep the Frogs in front of them.

Blaize Folts and James Fry will be the only returning starters on the offensive line this fall, and the unit as a whole will combine for only 28 career starts. Even still, TCU only had 1 returning starter last fall, but put up 5723 yards of total offense, averaging 40.8 yards per game.

Source: Athlon Sports

So by this point in the preview, TCU sounds more like a national championship contender than just "your average Big 12 team". Thankfully, the defensive side of the ball is where TCU comes back down to earth.

Last year, TCU allowed 124 yards per game on the ground and recorded only 25 sacks (still 15 more than Kansas). Stansly Maponga recorded 9 of those 25 sacks.

The junior from Zimbabwe has made a habit of wreaking havoc in opponent's backfields. Ross Forrest, a former walk on, will provide some help at defensive end, and freshman Devonte Fields has big-time potential, but outside of that, there a lot of uncertainties. The unit should be stronger than last year, but it still looks like more of a weakness than a strength.

Kenny Cain led TCU with 72 tackles last season, and he returns, but the Frogs lose irreplaceable leader, Tank Carder. Thank the lord. Kansas may have a slight advantage against TCU's front seven, but TCU's secondary is no slouch.

Safety Jonathan Anderson did some very nice things for the team last fall, and Jason Verrett returns with some experience. They should improve from last season, and unlike Kansas, there never really is a dearth of speed on the field in Fort Worth. They will find somebody to step up.

The defense wasn't bad, but it certainly wasn't good. And for TCU's standards, this was one of the worst defenses in recent memory. The 21.5 points allowed per game was the most given up by a team since 2004, and since then the, the sacks were down, average yards per play was up, completion percentage was up-- you get the point. Sure, TCU always has good defenses, but at least they are headed in the wrong direction. Kind of.

Head coach Gary Patterson steps into the league and instantly raises the bar. No knock on Kevin Sumlin or Gary Pinkel... well, maybe on Gary Pinkel... but Patterson has them beat by a hefty margin when it comes to success against the BCS and the top 25. They are both good coaches, but I would gladly take a trade of Sumlin and Pinkel for Patterson and WVU coach Dana Holgorsen. Believe it or not, the Big 12 got stronger this off-season.

Patterson will be entering his 12th year at TCU, where he has gone 109-30, and 7-4 in Bowls. He is 12-7 versus the top 25 and 16-6 versus BCS teams.

Charlie Weis, on the other hand, was just 35-27 during his career at Notre Dame, just 4-12 against the top 25, and 26-24 against BCS teams.

Head to head, Patterson gets the nod. But throw in the fact that Kansas may be 2-0 for their first Big 12 game, playing on national television (albeit at 11 AM), and playing for pride against a "Mountain West" team, Kansas has whatever intangibles there are to be had.

As for TCU, while I don't expect them to be shaking in their boots when they run out of the locker room, nobody can deny that they will have a few extra nerves with it being their first Big 12 game ever.

Prediction: TCU 38, Kansas 24

This is the type of game that Kansas could very well win even though have no business doing so. A kickoff return for a touchdown, a punt return for a touchdown, a fumble or interception returned for a touchdown. Something fluky happens? What have you. If Kansas pitches a near perfect game, then they will have a shot, but this TCU team is pretty loaded from top to bottom, and they have depth that Kansas sorely lacks. Kansas will trade punches with them early, but TCU will get a few defensive stops that Kansas can't match, and the Frogs will pull away.

Although this would be a monumental win for Weis and the program, the most important thing here is that the team competes for the majority of the game. KU cannot, cannot, cannot get blown out of the water! This is imperative. TCU will hit them in the jaw a few times, but they will have to get up, and show some resolve.