Week 5: @ K-State 2011: 10-3 (7-2)

Source: Orlando Sentinel

How does that Twain saying go, again? "I did not have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead." Yeah, that one. Well, insert said quote here, because if you are looking for a nice, brief breakdown of the 2012 "Sunflower Showdown", at/around 1000 words or less, then you will have to look elsewhere.

But if, perchance, you are looking for a long, meandering post with plenty of tangents and asides and just a smidgen of reliable analysis, then you have come to the right place. So, welcome (for those of you who have not closed your browser... yet). Let's do this thing.

Source: Sunday Morning QB

We will start this post like we have the rest, with the obligatory "meet the opposing mascot". This week's opponent: Willie... the Wildcat-human? Don't get me wrong, I really do like the "powercat" logo, but Willie just leaves me scratching my head. Pictured above is what KSU calls "Wheat Willie". Is he some sort of minotaur? A tikbalang? Who knows? All I do know is that Willie is one of the worst mascots in all of college sports. I'm sorry. I said it. Hey, at least he is better than EcoKat...wait, EcoKat looks strangely familiar...

This isn't me taking out some pent up frustration on K-State by slighting the mascot, I just think he looks funny (I have probably alienated half of my readers by this point: mission accomplished).

So it is clear by this point, that I could really care less about Willie, but truthfully, he probably isn't too fond of KU either. After all, Willie has to do push-ups after every K-State score, so his toughest workout of the season is always against the lowly Jayhawks. 59 points were put on the board 2 years in a row. That is a lot of push-ups.

Zimbio

Headlining the Kansas State offense, and team for that matter, is 6'5", 226 pound senior quarterback, Collin Klein (known to some as the "Honey Badger"). Klein is coming off a phenomenal 2011, throwing for 1,918 yards (completing 57.3% of his passes), 13 touchdowns and just six interceptions, and rushing for 1,141 yards (at 3.6 yards per carry) and 27 touchdowns. To put it in perspective, the entire Kansas team (rushing, passing, defense, and special teams) scored 36 touchdowns last year. Klein tied Ricky Williams Big 12 record, yeah, when Ricky won the most prestigious award in the sport, the Heisman trophy.

Klein wasn't always a sure thing at quarterback. In 2009, he actually played some wide receiver and special teams, and in 2010, it wasn't until 9th game of the season, a 39-14 win over Texas, that he started at quarterback. He wound up rushing for 127 yards against Texas, and then 141 the next week in a loss to Missouri, setting the K-State rushing record by a quarterback. Even heading into the 2011 season, his supreme talents were privy to only his coaches.

But heading into the 2012 campaign, the Big 12, and the rest of the country, certainly have a better beat on Klein. It would be mind boggling if he equals his 317 rushes from last year, because he is indispensable, and losing him to injury early in the season would be devastating.

Klein's rushing ability really softens the coverage downfield, and opens up receivers that wouldn't otherwise be open. But if he is limited on carries, you'd think that would carry over to his passing game too. Word is that he has improved his passing, so only time will tell what gives.

Tail-back John Hubert may be small in stature, but he is a big-time player, and he put up big numbers last year. Hubert stands just 5'7", but carried the ball 200 times for 1034 yards last year. It wouldn't be fair to liken him to Darren Sproles, but he certainly has lower body strength like Sproles did/has. Kansas is improved at all positions on defense, particularly with the front four, but I still give the Hubert/Klein two-headed monster the edge.

Chris Harper, Tramaine Thompson, dynamic specialist Tyler Lockett, and tight end Travis Tannahill all return, giving Collin Klein plenty of weapons at his disposal. Although none of them tallied over 50 catches, they were very reliable. Unfortunately for the Cats, Marquez Clark will not be able to help out the wide-receiver position. Clark had a very high ceiling, committing to KSU out of junior college, but failed to qualify. Even without Clark, K-State has an advantage over the Kansas secondary. It won't be like last year, but they should still see one of their best collective outputs of the season.

Last year's offensive line forged holes for Klein, Hubert, and company to run through, but struggled a bit in pass protection, suffering 43 sacks, including 7 against both Oklahoma and Arkansas. They lose LT Zach Hanson, a 2nd Team All-Big 12 player, RT Clyde Aufner, a 1st Team All-Big 12 player, and RG Colten Freeze. Still, Kansas will need to see marked improvement on a defensive line that allowed 205 yards through the air, 261 yards on the ground, and sacked Collin Klein... well, they didn't. Edge: KSU.

Twif Online

The Kansas State defense was unjustly given credit for being one of the best defenses in the Big 12 last year. They held their own, yes, but nothing screamed stellar. The Wildcats were only 5th in the conference in total defense 7th in scoring defense. The importance of timely turnovers cannot be overstated. The offense got short fields, and the defense benefited from ball-control, facing the 4th fewest plays in the conference. They should be better this year, though.

KSU loses Jordan Voelker and first team Big 12 DT Ray Kibble, but return pass rusher Meshak Williams. Emmanuel Lamur will not return at linebacker, but Arthur Brown does. His presence will be felt all season. He tallied 101 tackles, 2 sacks, 7.5 TFLs, and had a game-winning interception against Baylor. So even with a few losses, the front seven looks solid. Kansas is very talented on the line of scrimmage, and should have success in opening up holes for Tony Pierson and Brandon Bourbon to scamper through (barring any injuries).

The Wildcats lose 2nd Team All Big 12 safety Tysyn Hartman and David Garrett, but return the bulk of their secondary. Nigel Malone, a Thorpe finalist, had 7 interceptions last year, Ty Zimmerman returns at safety. Dayne Crist, Daymond Patterson, Kale Pick, and D.J. Beshears should be gelling by this point in the season, but so should the K-State secondary. I'll call this a wash, given that the Kansas rushing game doesn't implode like it did last year. I expect Kansas to have success on the ground, and that should allow Crist a little more flexibility.



Prediction: Kansas State 31, Kansas 17

Kansas State was 10-3 last year for a reason; Kansas was also 2-10 last year for a reason. One team was physical, disciplined, and well coached. The other was brittle, undisciplined, and unprepared. But these are the facts:

• Kansas State was 8-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less
• Last year, KSU's offense outgained KU by only 400 yards 
• KSU surrendered 1000 less yards than KU.
• KSU benefited from a +12 turnover ratio
• Collin Klein remained healthy (if you can call it that) for the entire season 

There certainly was a disparity in talent and conditioning last year. There is no denying that. But I think the gap in coaching was sizable, and more critical than the talent gap. Last year's KU Football staff reeked of incompetency. It was an easy layup for the meticulous Bill Snyder. This year, Snyder will actually need a game-plan. Kansas will not just beat itself.

This year, KU will close the talent gap and the coaching gap. Dayne Crist will keep a few drives alive, and the defense off the field, Kansas won't commit any/many unforced turnovers/penalties, and Collin Klein will be kept in check, although he will get his numbers when it is all said and done. Kansas should keep this one within shouting distance, but K-State will pull away in the final stanza.

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Wildcat fans could be a little blasé about the Kansas game after a combined score of 118-28 in the past two games. But the blowout victories will not placate the importance of the in-state rivalry to Bill Snyder. Snyder always has, and always will value the Sunflower Showdown. And finally, the Kansas coach is valuing it as well. Snyder vs. Weis > Snyder vs. Gill.

Kansas leads the all-time series 64-40-5, but Kansas State has won the past three games, and Bill Snyder is 16-4 against the Jayhawks.

Bill Snyder is entering his 21st year at Kansas State, where he has gone 159-83-1 (the University is 475-613-41 overall). He has been to 13 of Kansas State's 15 bowls, and won all 6 of them. Bill Snyder is K-State Football. When he first took over the program, the Wildcats had the worst record in Division 1-A and had gone winless in its past 27 games. Since then, they are 104-25-1 at home.  

Kansas State is 71-54 over the past 10 seasons, and 50-19 at home over that period. We all know the Jayhawk road woes, so the intangibles favor KSU.

We will see how it unfolds. Like always, check back after the game for my rant.