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Monday, July 16, 2012

Week 2: vs. Rice 2011: 4-8 (3-5)

Source: Chron
In the event that the South Dakota State Jackrabbits don't crash the party like their brother's from the north did, Kansas will be 1-0 and set to play the Rice Owls, from Conference USA, in the second of three non-conference games. If that is the case, Kansas will have a shot to tie their win total from last year. Not in conference. Not against their rivals. But from the entire season... it has been some pretty trying times around the Anderson Complex lately.


Source: Statesman
Forum, Sammy. Sammy, Forum. It will just be a brief meet-and-greet today, because I am a little hard pressed for time.

Sammy, is the official mascot for the owls, and honestly, I really hope he makes the trip up for the game this year. I guess years and years ago, the school kept several live owls on campus, but that practice has been discontinued. I'm not so sure about real live owls, but this big guy sure is fun.

Owls, as most know, are very shrewd. They are contemplative and extremely wise. So, I don't really know where I am going with this... Let's get back to football.

Rice is coming off a 4-8, 2011 season, going 3-5 in CUSA and finishing 4th in the West. Rice was beaten by 25 (twice), 24, 4, 18, 39, 22, and 3 points in very Kansas-esque fashion. They were outgained by 1373 yards on the year, while benefiting from a +8 turnover ratio, so assuming they just break even in the turnover department, Rice will have a very tough time matching last year's 4 wins. They beat Purdue 24-22 at home, blocking a last second field goal attempt (spread: +1), lowly Memphis by 22 (spread: -20), UTEP by 4 (spread: Even), and Tulane by 12 (spread: -20). So basically, Rice won the games that they were supposed to, and were disposed of in games they were supposed to, by the score they were supposed to.

Experience was not a major issue last year, with Rice returning 16 starters. This year, the team is much less experienced with just 10 starters back.

Junior Taylor McHargue, will return as the starting quarterback, playing in 9 games last year, completing 57.5% of his passes for 1072 yards. He threw 8 touchdowns to 5 interceptions, but where he is most dangerous is on the ground, rushing the football. McHargue carried the ball 151 times, providing some mobility and keeping plays alive. Whoever plays quarterback, whether it be McHargue or Driphus Jackson (another dual-threat quarterback), had better be ready to run this fall because Rice loses LT Jake Hicks, RT Tyler Parish, C Eric Ball, LG Davon Allen, and C Keshawn Carrington on the offensive line. The new offensive line combines for just 15 career starts, last in the FBS, and aside from Juco addition, Nate Richards, there are a lot of question marks. So while I don't see the Kansas front four getting to know McHargue well, or any other quarterback they play for that matter, I will say this matchup is a push.

Former Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie was a very nice get for Rice at running back the past few seasons, but he has transitioned into the slot to catch some pases from McHargue. Jeremy Eddington and Turner Peterson could be factors against Kansas, and don't be surprised if you see some sort of variation of the "Wild Owl".

Rice returns TE Luke Willson and WR Vance McDonald, who led the team in receptions and yardage, and with McGuffie in the slot, Kansas will have its hands satiated, to say the least. This will be a nice test for the Kansas secondary, and will hopefully reflect the improvement we saw at the tail end of last year. With that said, I still think edge Rice.

Defensively, Rice will depend on leading tackler Cameron Nwosu (108) and former LSU Tiger, Kyle Prater, to anchor the defense. A defense that was pretty vanilla last year, and barring a miracle, won't have much spice to it this year either. The team gave up 33.3 points per game, 4.8 yards per rush, and 6.5 yard per pass. Dayne Crist should be comfortable in his crimson and blue by this point, and should have one of his best statistical games of the season. Sizable edge to Kansas.

I see Kansas pulling ahead early in this game, and coasting to the finish line. I won't say Rice ever puts a scare in Kansas, but they will be within shouting distance for the better part of the game. Still, Kansas will be too much, particularly on the road. Even if Rice has the horses to compete with Kansas for four quarters, they will spot the Jayhawks 10-14 points because of their ineptitude on the road.

As much as Kansas has struggled on the road, historically speaking, the Owls have struggled tenfold. Rice opens the 2012 season at home against UCLA on Thursday, August 30, so when they visit Memorial Stadium, it will be their first road game of the year. Rice is just 4-16 in "true" road openers, and have lost 23 straight true road games versus BCS teams by an average of 27 points per game. Their last win was at Northwestern in 1997.

They are just 1-17 in road games the past three seasons and while coach David Bailiff is a tolerable 23-38 and 16-13 at home in his 5 years at Rice, he is just 6-24 away from Rice Stadium and 1-14 against BCS teams.

Prediction: Kansas 38, Rice 24


*The only meeting in this series was in the 1961 Bluebonnet Bowl, Rice lost 33-7. 

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