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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Mission Impossible 2012; Schedule Released

Subsequent to their official exit from the Big East Conference, the West Virginia Mountaineers tied the knot with the disheveled Big 12 Conference, which allowed the A.D.s to make their 2012 schedules. Once the A.D.s submitted their proposed schedules, the Big 12 officials then reviewed and finalized those schedules after a long, long, drawn out period of quiescence. On Tuesday the officials finally released those 2012 football schedules to the public for geeks like me to salivate over. Yeah...except I haven't been salivating too much. After looking at all of the schedules, I can't tell you much, but I can tell you one thing: Kansas's is going to be a bear.


Missouri and Texas A&M ditched the conference, but their vacancies were filled by Texas Christian and the aforesaid West Virginia. The league will continue to feature a 10-team, nine-game, round-robin schedule.  Below is the Kansas 2012 schedule and a few first-glance thoughts on what it means for Charlie Weis and Jayhawks Football.


KANSAS JAYHAWKS 2012 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE



Sep 1 vs. SDSU Jackrabbits 


2011: 5-6





Sep 8 vs. Rice University Owls 

2011: 4-8





Sep 15 vs. TCU Horned Frogs 



2011: 11-2 





Sep 22 @ Northen Illinois Huskies 


2011: 11-3





Oct 6 @ Kansas State Wildcats


2011: 10-3 (7-2)



Oct 13 vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys


2011: 12-1 (8-1)




Oct 20 @ Oklahoma Sooners 


2011: 10-3 (6-3)






Oct 27 vs. Texas Longhorns 


2011: 8-4 (4-5)





Nov 3 @ Baylor Bears


2011: 10-3 (6-3)





Nov 10 @ Texas Tech Red Raiders 

2011: 5-7 (2-7)




Nov 17 vs. Iowa State Cyclones 


2011: 6-7 (3-6)




Dec 1 @ West Virginia Mountaineers


2011: 10-3


Conference games in red, non-conference games in blue.

Now forgive me because I am up to my eyeballs in work, but by giving this schedule a quick glance I noticed a few things.

For starters, Kansas will be TCU's first Big 12 game, and here's hoping it goes miserably. The more likely scenario is that the Horned Frogs leave Lawrence hopping with joy, but you never know, that's why they play the games.

On a side note, the game will be TCU's second of the season and Kansas's third. If everything goes as planned, both teams should be undefeated and the stadium should be rocking. I'm leaning TCU, but don't count out the Hawks, especially since the schedule is coming on the heels of a drug bust. I don't mean this in poor taste, but it only helps our chances.

Kansas's Big 12 stint will be interrupted with a short trip out to Dekalb, Illinois to face the NIU Huskies. Yes, the same Huskies that punished the Kansas secondary all night long this past September and nearly came out with a W. Honestly, I'm not too concerned. Chandler Harnish is gone and so is Turner Gill. If Kansas plays BCS style football, then they should take care of business. I would almost chalk this up as a win already, but my only qualm is that the game gets moved to a Friday night: a la Toledo in 2006, South  Florida in 2008, and Southern Miss in 2010. For some reason, and it has a lot of evidence to prove it, when a BCS school travels to a non-BCS school on a Friday night, more times than not the underdog wins. Both  Kansas and NIU will likely be 2-0 two weeks before the game, so ESPN might just add it to their Friday night slate. Please, for the love of all that is holy, don't.

Kansas will get some much needed rest after 4 weeks of play with a bye week before the Kansas State game. I really think there isn't anything I like more about the schedule than this. Coach Weis made it apparent that he wants to win the state of Kansas, and his chances of doing so just increased significantly-- well, except for the fact that KSU will get that same week off after a game in Norman, Oklahoma against the  Sooners. Still, Kansas State is a team that you really need to scheme well against because they are so fundamentally sound and meticulous.

Next up is a tough string of games against the Oklahoma teams (I still don't understand the logic behind that, but who am I to say anything). I expect Late Night at the Phog to take place the Friday before the OSU game, so expect a lot of football recruits that weekend. Could we split these two games? Maybe? 

The next four conference games comprise probably the most amiable stretch imaginable. Texas at home, Baylor and Tech on the road, and Iowa State at home. If Dayne Crist is slinging the ball around like we expect, Kansas could go 4-0. If the defense still cannot stop anybody, Kansas could go 0-4. It's obviously going to fall in the ballpark of those 2 predictions, and I think the most probable case is 2-2.

This third of the season is where Kansas needs to make some hay. They could realistically be 4-3 or 3-4 heading into it, so winning 2 to 3 of these 4 games would cross that ever-so prestigious threshold of mediocrity (a.k.a "bowl eligibility").

Texas won't be easy (especially after a 44-0 loss last fall), but the games thereafter will get incrementally easier. Kansas actually played its closest Big 12 games against Baylor (1 point loss), Iowa State (3 point loss on the road), and Texas Tech (11 point loss), so who is to say they can't at least replicate that and possibly win 2 or all three?

I don't care how they do it, but hopefully by the end of November, Kansas will be bowl eligible, because I can't really see the Jayhawks getting their nth win at Morgantown, WV on December 1st. After their showing in the Orange Bowl, West Virginia looks dangerous, and I think they win this one handily.


So, since we all love meaningless predictions in the middle of February, I'm guessing that Kansas can eek out 4 to 6 wins in the 2012 season. 7 wins would be the ceiling... and earth-shattering; 5 wins or more honestly would be one heck of a season.



    

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