Preview: KU @ Iowa State

Source: zimbio.com

KU snapped a 27 game conference losing streak with its 31-19 win over West Virginia, and Saturday's game against the Iowa State Cyclones presents another opportunity to streak-bust. Dating back to 2009, Kansas has lost 23 straight road games, and hasn't won a Big 12 road game since the 35-33 win over these very Cyclones on October 4th, 2008. Kansas had to rally back from an early 20-0 halftime deficit, thanks to strong second half performances from Todd Reesing, Jake Sharp, and Kerry Meier. This year, KU finds itself a 4 and 1/2 point underdog in Ames, and has a very good chance of ending the streak, but they better not try to do it like they did in '08. I'm afraid that offense was a smidgen better than this one...
This has been, by far, the worst of Paul Rhoads five seasons as head coach of the Cyclones. The Clones come into the game at 1-9 (0-7), but have lost games to Northern Iowa, Iowa, Texas, @Texas Tech, and TCU, by scores of 8, 6, 1, 7, and 4, respectively, so you could argue (to make things interesting) that ISU is about 5-10 plays away from being 6-4 (3-4).

As they have been historically, Iowa State is a tough out at home, where their only lopsided loss of the season came on October 26th, falling 58-27 to Oklahoma State.

But a home-field advantage can only hide a team's weaknesses to a certain point. The Cyclones' woes come in stopping the run, which actually plays right into the Jayhawks' strength. It won't be easy away from the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium, but to KU's credit, it's money maker is the bane of Iowa State's existence. ISU has surrendered, on average, 5.39 yards per rush to its opponents, and are allowing 38.8 points per game, good for 117th in the country. The two-headed monster of Montell Cozart and James Sims should combine for some pretty numbers against a weak interior defense. And for as many big plays as it lets up, it isn't a particularly opportunistic defense, forcing just 5 interceptions all year as compared to KU's 12.

The State offense lacks firepower. Aside from running back Aaron Wimberly, who averages 4.12 yards per carry, every other Cyclone averages less than 4 ypc, which is, in large part, thanks to an inexperienced offensive line.

Comparatively, Montell Cozart is KU's least effective rusher, with 3.78 yards per tote, while James Sims, Darrian Miller, Brandon Bourbon, and Tony Pierson average 4.89, 4.81, 5.15, and 6.79 per carry. If you think KU's running game has been slow to go, watch a Cyclone game. And I'm not sure why you would think that after watching KU's running game sync with Cozart under center.

Sam Richardson and Grant Rohach have split quarterbacking duties this season, and both are hitting receivers for about 55%. Richardson goes for about 6.4 yards per attempt, while Rohach goes for about 4.4 per attempt. There is a good chance that we see both on Saturday night, but neither should send shivers down your back. KU has seen much more formidable gunslingers, and for a defense that is starting to find its identity, this could be an opportunity to hold an offense to under 300 yards of offense.

Prediction:
Kansas 24
Iowa State 13  

Psychologically, KU will be heading into the contest with a bit of an unfamiliar feeling, looking down the standings at the Cyclones. Even with that said, KU comes into the game as 4 1/2 point underdogs. If KU wins on a cold November night at Jack Trice Stadium (one of the coldest in Iowa State's history, which is saying something) KU could position itself to finish as high as 7th in the conference by year's end, and have a shot at winning 5 games when K-State comes calling next week. I think they will, and they could do it comfortably (which is a relative word because nobody will be too comfortable with a 0 degree wind-chill).