Week 4: @ NIU 2011: 11-3 (8-1)

Source: NIU Today

After the conference opener against TCU, Kansas will leave the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium for a brief 2 game road trip featuring Northern Illinois and in-state rival Kansas State. After two straight home field drubbings under Turner Gill, the trip to K-State game looms large, but Kansas must first get through their last non-conference task, the Huskies in DeKalb. Nothing from last years' game says that it will be easy (4 ties and 7 lead changes).

Source: Wide Right and Natty Light

We will give Victor E. Huskie his 10 seconds of fame now. And quite honestly, this ten second window of opportunity is probably the most coverage this goofy, harmless guy has ever gotten, or ever will get, outside of at your local carnival. He better enjoy the spotlight, because his time is running ou

Aside from the last touchdown, a 1 yard rush by Jasmin Hopkins, NIU quarterback Chandler Harnish was a part of every single score against the Jayhawks last fall. Even though he was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2012 draft (which is sort of a blessing in disguise), he was certainly everything but irrelevant against KU, throwing 27/33 for 315 yards and 2 touchdowns, rushing 11 for 89 and 3 touchdowns. He wound up winning the MAC offensive player of the year award, so his performance against Kansas was no fluke. Thankfully, that is the last we see of him.

Jordan Lynch, a 6'0", 216 pound junior, takes over. In limited playing time, Lynch did fairly well, and displayed his rushing prowess. Kansan and NIU Head Coach Dave Doeren was actually quoted as saying that Lynch is "actually faster and has a stronger arm than Harnish". Ruh-roh. If I am Kansas, I much prefer an inexperienced talent, like Lynch, over a 4 year starter in Harnish.

Jamal Womble will have to replace Jasmin Hopkins, who averaged over 5 yards per carry last fall. Not only that, but he will have to replace Harnish's productivity, 1,379 yards on the ground. He certainly has the potential to do so, and he should have the drive, being a senior with a long list of second, third, and fourth chances. Womble was a Tarheel, and held offers from Arizona State, Boston College, Louisville, Nebraska, Purdue, South Carolina, and Wisconsin, but then went the Juco route for a few seasons before committing to NIU.

Da'Ron Brown and Martel Moore were thorns in the side of the Kansas secondary last year, scoring a touchdown each, with some acrobatic catches, and both return this season. Moore is coming off GoDaddy.com bowl victory in which he caught 8 passes for 224 yards. Even Danica Patrick couldn't contain her excitement. Point being, NIU has Big 12 talent at its skill positions, namely at wide-receiver.

Chandler Harnish could still be sitting in the pocket right now, given how much protection he got from his offensive line against Kansas last year. The Huskies lose the bulk of that line, 1st Team MAC center Scott Wedige, 1st Team MAC left tackle Trevor Olson, 3rd Team MAC right guard Joe Pawlak, and right tackle Keith Otis. NIU averaged 5.5 yards per rush on the ground, about 250 yards through the air, and only allowed 12 sacks (Kansas allowed 31). NIU should be a little slow out of the blocks, so even though this will be their fourth game of the year, Kansas could still take advantage of this weakness.

Source: Madia Madness

Sean Progar will be one of the best players on a defense that had its lumps last year. The team allowed over 30 points, and about 400 yards per game last year. Progar was a 2nd Team MAC defensive end, with 5.5 sacks and 5.5 tfls.

Devon Butler and Tyrone Clark return, along with Jamaal Bass at linebacker, so they should at least hold serve this year. With that said, Kansas should still impose its will in the rushing game.

The NIU secondary is the strength of this defense. Rashaan Melvin, Jhony Faustin Jimmie Ward, and Dechane Durante all return. Jimmie Ward tallied 100 tackles last year, and like KU's Bradley McDougald, when a safety is near the top of the roster in total tackles, that is not always a good thing. But, with improved play up front, this defense could be, and should be, better than last year.

Prediction: Kansas 41, NIU 31

This will be the third meeting all-time between these two programs, Kansas leads 2-1, and Kansas has taken the past two at KU. NIU is 3-0 when hosting BCS teams since the inception, so they have seen success. The Huskies are 44-13 at home over the past ten seasons, and Kansas is just 10-37 on the road in that span.

If this is a track meet like last years' game, I will take Crist over Lynch, and Weis over Doeren. If it is a defensive struggle, then NIU gets a slight edge. I am betting on the former, with a close, 4th quarter road victory for Kansas.