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Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Bill Snyder's 200th Victory was a Pyrrhic One

Source: KU Sports
The legend has it that at Heraclea in 280 BC and at Asculum in 279 BC, king Pyrrhus of Epirus, despite his victories, suffered damning casualties to the Romans. He walked away from the triumphs feeling forlorn.

According to Plutarch in a report by Dionysius:

Pyrrhus said that one other such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him... On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war.

If you haven't followed the analogy to this point, the Kansas Jayhawks are the Romans. Tired of of the humiliation, and eyes locked on the 2017 Sunflower Showdown in Lawrence. Saturday, KU lost the battle to Kansas State, in a series that the Jayhawks still lead 65-44-5, but the dam that has been burgeoning the length of Barack Obama's time as President-- a solid 8 years of embarrassment-- that dam is about to burst. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder had this to say about the young Jayhawks:

I will say this, the University of Kansas is making headway and I can assure you that. They have done a nice job. The record does not always tell you what the real answers are, but they are getting better and better.

KU's 15-point loss to in-state rival Kansas State, 34-19, meant the Jayhawks would carry their 38-game road losing streak, and 8-game losing streak against the Wildcats into the offseason. Which with a touch of paradox is also the reason it should extend its coach's contract.

Although it came in defeat, Saturday's Sunflower Showdown signaled a slow, but steady change of the guards, as old Bill Snyder, engineer behind one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of sport, shook hands with young David Beaty at midfield, who has faced and will continue to face a daunting rebuild himself. One coach walked away from the exchange with his 200th win; the other with his 22nd loss in 24 tries. But don't expect Bill Snyder's number to climb all too much higher than 200, and don't expect David Beaty's winning percentage to stay around 8. Which is why the time is ripe for KU administration to make a move.

The Jayhawk performance on Saturday transcended the scoreboard, sending a message to its rival who has tread heavily on KU's program for almost a decade. KU is not an automatic W any longer. KU matched and often exceeded Kansas State's physicality during the 60-minute interchange. And in a game that still had intrigue to it, KU won the second half, 16-14. Sight unseen, honest KU fans would have gladly taken a two-score loss this year. But the way Kansas played against KSU is reason for even more optimism. Hits such as the one KU freshman Mike Lee put on Wildcat Alex Barnes will leave an indelible memory for the players, coaches, and fans.

Both Saturday and in the 2016 body of work as a whole, showed those close to the KU program that the 46-year old Texan head coach is equal to the task of bringing this program back to respectability, and that KU should put all its assets behind him. Saturday showed the in-state rival up close and personal. The time is now to invest in this program's future, which given how the season ended, and the tangible strides KU football showed, is a future that will include David Beaty. It's a win-win. Beaty will be rewarded for his efforts, and KU will still be getting him on the cheap for future returns he'll bring in.

It was no fluke. Saturday's ballgame had major importance for Kansas State, so this wasn't the case of KU catching somebody sleeping. On Senior Day, Bill Snyder eclipsed the 200-win mark against a Kansas team he makes a point of beating soundly. KU came into Manhattan under the influence of its 24-21 defeat of Texas, the same margin by which the Wildcats beat the Longhorns, so as things have gone lately, the Jayhawks were prime for a letdown heading into another bowl-less winter.

But even in the hostile environment in which KU has had about as much success as a fly in a Venus-trap, behind a freshman quarterback with some competitive fire and an offensive line that is beginning to come together as a unit, Kansas took the opening possession down the field 58 yards in 11 plays, including a 30-yard Carter Stanley pass to Tyler Patrick to convert a 2nd and 20, and a 17-yard catch and run to Ke'Aun Kinner on a 3rd and 10. Kansas led 3-0.

K-State would respond on 6 plays, five of them on the ground, to take the 6-3 lead on Winston Dimel's 1-yard plunge. The extra point was blocked by Daniel Wise.

After a Kansas punt, KU forced Kansas State back from the line they had gained to the KU 40, back to the Kansas State 43 on a Courtney Arnick sack and a KSU personal foul penalty.

Starting at its 9, KU moved the ball to the 42, but was forced to punt. The quarter ended after two KSU plays with the Wildcats leading 6-3. Manhattan was watching a different Jayhawk team than they were used to seeing.

The second quarter got off to a cataclysmic start for the Jayhawks. Just 2:26 in, the Wildcats scored on a 31-yard bolt by Alex Barnes. Then, after a six-yard gain by Stanley, the freshman telegraphed his pass to the right sideline, which was picked off by Donnie Starks-- carried by his momentum to an untouched score. Suddenly, the margin was 20-3, and Kansas was in the danger zone with a young quarterback starting on the road for the first time. Wildcat fans shared a thought: Ah, that's more like it.

Facing a 2nd and 14 on its next drive, Stanley completed a 15-yard pass to Tyler Patrick. But two plays later, an innocent pass over the middle was tipped into the air and intercepted by Elijah Lee and returned 3 yard to the KU 36. Sirens were going off. KU was on life-support.

But the KU defense which had been set back in less-than-ideal situations time and time again, stood tall once again. Dorance Armstrong registered 2 TFL's on the possession, forcing the Wildcats to attempt a 36-yard field goal, which doinked off the left up-right no good.

KU was able to convert one first down on the following possession, but the drive sputtered immediately after. The Hawks failed to make good on the efforts of its defense once again, which could have really sparked the team in this game. Ultimately, the two teams traded possessions without points to end the half. KU held Kansas State down to 219 total yards of offense in the first half, but its two turnovers didn't help. One led directly to 7 points, and the other killed a potential point-scoring drive.

With quarterbacks Jesse Ertz and Joe Hubener withered from vicious hits by the Kansas defense, Snyder called on third-string running quarterback Alex Delton, who on fresh legs, carried the opening possession six straight times to the KU 7. On the next play, Winston Dimel ran in from 7 yards. KState led convincingly, 27-3.

KU went three and out, but forced KSU to punt after one first down. From its own 5 yard line, Carter Stanley took the shotgun snap, stepped up in the pocket and dropped a ball into La'Quivionte Gonzalez's hands better than he could have handed it to him at the KU 41. Gonzalez hauled this one in, despite his bouts of butterfingers this season, and out-ran defenders for the score. The two-point play failed, as KU ran what appeared to be the same (or a variation of the) play they had run successfully against Texas. KU trailed 27-9.

In very Kansas State fashion, the Wildcats moved the chains methodically as the third quarter came to an end, and then began the fourth quarter with a Joe Hubener 1-yard touchdown on 3rd and goal as KU was holding stiff. 34-9 KSU.

But 10 plays, 75 yards later, Kansas was back in the end-zone on a 4-yard play-action pass to Michael Zunica, 34-16 KSU.

With 11:26 left in the game, Kansas recovered a perfectly placed onside kick by senior Matthew Wyman. A huge ten-yard holding penalty on Larry Hughes stopped the drive before it could get started, but the Jayhawks found themselves with the ball back just 2 and a half minutes later thanks to its defense which forced KSU to punt. Working mostly Tyler Patrick and Quiv Gonzalez, Stanley drove KU down to the KSU 27 before settling for a 44-yard Wyman field goal. 34-19 KSU.

K-State was able to milk 3:33 off the clock, but Courtney Arnick blew through to rip the ball loose from Joe Hubener. KU's Kellen Ash recovered at the KU 42.

With 2:55 left, Kansas likely wasn't going to win the game, but they had all the momentum. A touchdown wouldn't win them the game, but it would mean a one-score defeat to a team that routinely names the score against the Jayhawks. On the road.

KU couldn't muster anything more on that final drive, but the Wildcats walked away knowing they had been in a fight.

Now that all 12 games in 2016 have been played out to their resolution, I can't help but look forward to what's ahead. The first question that comes to mind when thinking long-term about this rivalry is an honest one: which program faces more uncertainty next year and beyond?

Bill Snyder enters the final year of his contract next year, and he's not getting any younger. The coach turned 77 this past October.

David Beaty, on the other hand, improved the win total from a year ago by 2, including a rousing win over Texas. Paired with the closer defeat to the Wildcats, and a plethora of examples of kids who not only have started or played early in their careers, but developed into All-Big 12 caliber football players, the recruiting effort should be easier lifting both in the talent-rich state of Texas and in the backyard: Kansas and the metro area.

With as much assurance as a Wildcat fan can point to a successful program under Bill Snyder, that must be coupled with equal doubt about a program without him. Just 8 years ago, Snyder was forced out of retirement to clean up the mess Ron Prince had left. He won't be un-retiring again, I'll save you the suspense.

Bill Snyder is 200-105-1 as head coach at Kansas State. The Wildcats hold an all-time record of 515-635-41. Snyder's winning percentage: 65.4%; K-State including Snyder: 43.2%; K-State without Snyder: 35.6%.

The point is, Kansas is going to continue to improve on its record next fall. Whether that's 3 wins or 6, the trajectory of the program is up. Re-signing David Beaty to a better, yet still program-friendly extension of two years would send a message to everyone in and around the program, and those considering joining the effort. While student-athletes are advised to commit to the school and not the coach, many recruits have natural concern in the coach's longevity/stability. Seeing as how Kansas State will need to hire a replacement for Snyder, how Baylor is tiptoeing around land mines, and how Texas Tech's defense would have trouble stopping many intramural teams, Kansas can really seize on this moment in time.

KU and KState weren't in the same weight class for quite some time. They still aren't, really. But instead of at one point, the typical welter versus heavy; KU butted heads with Kansas State. KState, as they so often have done, backed Kansas into a corner started hammering away. But Kansas punched back and won the second half.

This off-season, led by Je'Ney Jackson in the weight room, Kansas needs to wash, rinse, and repeat what they did last year. Mine through every nook and cranny for undervalued talent; grow and develop them with strength-conditioning and coaching.

Excluding this most recent one and the Mangino-coached loss to Bill Snyder in 2009, 17-10 in Manhattan, which would be the first of the next 8, Kansas's average defeat to the Wildcats in the last six match-ups came in at 50.2-13.5, or about a 35-point average defeat. Kansas came into Manhattan on Saturday spotted 27 points by Vegas, and found themselves with the ball down 15 with about three minutes remaining.

David Beaty wasn't error-free on Saturday, but Kansas put out a strong effort. Some will say moral victories are for losers, but I'd counter that with the fact that those who can't take losses as part of the growing pains are unrealistic. All losses are not equal, especially when they allow young players to get some tread on their tires and learn on the job.

Furthermore, David Beaty is still missing puzzle pieces. And to say that is his completely or even largely his fault is ludicrous. Insofar as it isn't fair to give complete credit to Bruce Weber for taking Illinois to the Final Four with Bill Self's players, it isn't fair to give complete blame to David Beaty for his 2-22 record.

Currently, David Beaty is signed with Kansas for 5 years, making $800,000 per year. This ranks him 84th nationally in terms of salary, according to a 2016 release from the USA Today. As I've alluded to in the past, the contract was incentive-heavy, as Beaty enjoys the 36th best contract in terms of incentives. This begat out of necessity, really. KU had overpayed its past two coaches. Turner Gill, a Lew Perkins hire following the resignation of Mark Mangino, signed for a 5 year, $10 million contract of which he served just two seasons. Zenger had him fired after the Missouri game in 2011, which made him 5-19 to start. He was eligible for the full value of the remaining three years, so KU had to pay him $6 million in 120 days. Boosters ponied up the money to get him out of Lawrence.

Then Zenger exacerbated the state of KU Football with Charlie Weis, who after signing a 5 year, $12.5 million contract of which he served 2 and 1/3 years. brought duct tape to Lawrence in hopes of a quick-fix and an even quicker buck. A failed junior college plan eviscerated the program of scholarship players beyond belief. And KU still had to pay him. Just this year, KU will be off the hook with Weis.

Beaty did make $25,000 in beating Texas, as a clause in his contract states that each Big 12 win will earn him such figures. If the Hawks go bowling at some point under this current contract, he'll bring home another $100k.

But KU can buy him low now. Year one was essentially a take-your-lumps year. Year two was a year in which KU needed to show it could be competitive, and also beat somebody with a pulse. To this point, Beaty checks out.

Year three, KU could really use a road win. It could also use multiple conference victories. 4 wins is realistic, but nobody would laugh at the prospect of 5. 6, and this program is ahead of schedule and ready for takeoff.

If I'm Sheahon Zenger, I'd be crafting that contract extension as we speak. But I'm not. And so I wait, with you all, to see what happens next.

Rock Chalk.

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