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| Source: KU Sports |
On Thursday night, before a crowd of close to 57,000 and a national audience, Kansas kept things fairly interesting on into the fourth quarter, trailing 41-19, but offensive blunders and a lack of depth made for smooth sailing for the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, rolling 55-19, as Tech covered the Vegas spread on the shoulders of its backup quarterback. This is not expert analysis or insider information, but it's truth: Kansas is not a good football team.
However, on Thursday night, in answer to the pleading of defensive coordinator Clint Bowen for harder hitting, the Jayhawks did their part for much of the game. Thursday, they looked like a better, meaner, and more prepared team than they did down in Memphis, and while this may sound like a broken record and alarm bells may be going off in your head not to allow yourself to get your hopes up enough to where you're let down again and again (although my hopes being high now include, hey, maybe we can move the ball a little bit and hold them to under 50), a key difference in this year as opposed to those prior is that the promising talent is young and here for a few more years. Although much of it is sidelined by injury. But in years prior (2014), it was, hey, we were a few bounces away from going bowling.... but everybody is gone next year. 0-12.
As for the game itself. 5 seconds more than 5 minutes into this football matchup, Kansas was down 14-0. Not a recipe for a road victory. Not a recipe for a home victory. Not how good teams start games.
On drives of 5 and 8 plays, Tech gunslinger Patrick Mahomes commanded his troops up and down the field with relative ease. Granted, Mahomes left the game averaging 442 passing yards per game (Montell Cozart has 581 all season), so Tech's offense is elite, or at least leaps and bounds better than Kansas's, but the Jayhawks looked like they didn't belong on the same football field in the early minutes.
This changed, however, as Tech was held to just 14 points the rest of the half. Sophomore defensive end Dorance Armstrong, before getting injured, ransacked the backfield and tallied two sacks (he leads the Big 12 with 4). Freshman defensive end Isaiah Bean, who still looks a little stringy (pardon the pun), showcased elite athleticism and potential. He's got to put on some weight to endure a twelve game schedule (left the game late), but this is the kind of athlete who changes programs. Sophomore Daniel Wise left with injury as well, but continued to be a force up the middle. Filling out a depth chart behind them with impending recruiting classes will help keep games like Thursday's competitive, but with all three of these studs back next year and the year following, Kansas looks like it has the makings of a stout defense come 2018.
The secondary has some spots too. Mike Lee should still be in his senior high U.S. Government class, but he's on the field as a true freshman learning what Big 12 football is all about. Sure, he has been abused by wideouts, and likely will continue to be throughout the season, but a sophomore Mike Lee who starts to figure things out and still delivers hits like he did the other day, that's a guy who has some nasty to him. Sophomore Tyrone Miller has taken several steps back from last season, but I still hold out faith he can be an All-Big 12 type player. Bryce Torneden, a local kid out of Free State, looks like he wants to be out there. Same with Keith Loneker who tallied a safety and seems to always be around the football.
As a whole, the defense combined for 10 tackles for loss. Sure, things began to get out of hand when the three ogres up front were maimed, and hot-off-the-bench Nic Shimonek fired 4 touchdown passes, threw for 271 yards to just 6 incompletions and took full advantage of the drop-off on the line, but you add a Big 12 caliber offense into the mix to go along with an improved special teams unit which forced a fumble, covered well, and converted every kick and extra point (and have been doing so for most of 2016), and Kansas is a competitive football team.
Here's where things get bleak, though. Kansas does not have a Big 12 caliber offense. Kansas's offensive line, aside from freshman Hakeem Adeniji who should be playing on Sunday's in the next four years (although he's been beaten badly because of inexperience), aside from Adeniji, this line needs a massive overhaul. The conversation on the quarterback shouldn't even begin until a digestible line trots out there. This is a line you spit out before chewing.
This whole Kansas not scoring trend is nothing new.
2010: 17.1 points per game (111th out of 120).
2011: 22.3 ppg (95th out of 120).
2012: 18.2 ppg (118th out of 120).
2013: 15.3 ppg (120th out of 125).
2014: 17.8 ppg (118th out of 128).
2015: 15.2 (123rd out of 128).
2016 (through likely its weakest four opposing defenses): 25.5 ppg (91st out of 128).
Remember that offensive juggernaut in 2011? Gives me the chills.
Reality check? The top seven offenses in the Big 12 (which has ten teams) all average 30 points per game or more. Even if Kansas holds opponents to their average, historically speaking, Kansas is losing these games by two scores.
My theory is that Kansas doesn't enjoy a whole lot of "pressure" mistakes from opponents (false starts, dropped passes, blown coverages, uncaused fumbles, etc.) because frankly, when playing Kansas, there is no pressure. If you can manage four touchdowns, history says you are pretty safe against he Jayhawks.
Meanwhile around the league, teams are missing field goals (Kansas State), quarterbacks are missing wide open receivers (WVU and Texas), because there is an element of failure looming. With Kansas, there's simply no offensive threat. Teams do not fear Kansas because the offense is completely ineffective, and rarely do they make mistakes because of it.
David Beaty came to Kansas with the air-raid offense. The only sign we've gotten that the offense has changed has come from an inability to run the football. Kansas has amassed 3 total touchdowns on the ground. All season.
Ryan Willis will get the start this week, says Beaty. I believe this means he'll have four quarters since the infamous "OR" has been removed from the depth chart. But don't breathe too easily, No. 2 will likely find his way onto the field at some point and back into your nightmares. Still, Willis is a competitor. I like his fire and grit. At this point in time, Kansas probably needs a signal caller who is more confident about his abilities than he should be. That's Ryan Willis, who can't seem to handle the blitz, but gets up after getting his teeth knocked out, and barks at his team.
Intangibles aside, the kid has an arm that scout's drool over, and if the accuracy is there, he can put some points up. Last year, Willis put up some nice numbers (KU freshman record 1,719 yards and 9 touchdowns). Is he liked by all his teammates and coaches? I can't say. But is it Jim Leyland famous for saying (paraphrasing), the leaders on my team are the one's who hit the ball. I can guarantee you, if Ryan Willis beats Texas Christian this week, his teammates will like him just fine.
I'm not predicting the win, mind you. But TCU's secondary has its shortcomings, and Kansas has the bodies on the perimeter to test it. Chase Harrell looked like a man in catching his touchdown pass on a post pattern and lighting up a Tech defender on a pass in the flat. Blocking wide-receivers would be nice to see from time to time. In the passing game, his big body could be used similar to Nigel King's back in 2014. Box out those smaller TCU defenders.
Steven Sims Jr. has been a warrior all year long. He's on a pace for a 1,000 yard receiving season, and he has a knack for finding open spots down in the end-zone (5 TD's). At times, La'Quivionte Gonzalez looked like he'd rather be anywhere else (not to mention defensively, Bazie Bates giving the old ole a few times and a good loaf a few others) so it's not all good in the neighborhood. But the point is, Kansas has enough kids that really care (Keith Loneker), and enough young dudes who can play some football, that its going to find itself neck-and-neck in the fourth quarter a few times this season. I'd bet at least two more times.
Series like Thursday's though, and whether they can be nixed or at least curbed, or whether they repeat themselves, will be the deciding factor on whether Kansas can eek out another win or whether we must turn our gaze to 2017 for the next one.
Trailing just 28-16 after a touchdown drive on its previous possession, and regaining possession thanks to Cameron Rosser's 21-yard sack of Patrick Mahomes, Kansas had some momentum. They worked the ball down into the Tech red-zone, and set up first and goal at the Tech 4. Except, they didn't set up. A false start penalty on Jacob Bragg set them back five yards. On the next play, Willis was flagged for grounding. A first and goal from the four became 2nd and goal from the 24. Kansas was held to three points, and Tech dominated from that point on.
But one can hope. One can hope that Willis will seize this job and make it his own for the rest of the season, and these mistakes that creep up over and over again will slowly but surely become less commonplace.
With the defeat, Kansas has now lost 18 of its 19 total match-ups with the Red Raiders. Historically (and even when KU was going strong), Tech has fed the Jayhawks its supper. For anybody to expect this edition of the KU football team to pillage Lubbock, they'd have to be on class A stuff. But Kansas did enough Thursday to make you think that David Beaty is moving things back to respectability.
With conference realignment shaking the grounds beneath Kansas, a respectable football program will do it wonders. I believe in David Beaty. These things come in cycles, and if Kansas can stay healthy and continue to find some gems on the recruiting trail, 2018 should be much more fun to cover. Hopefully that season, the 36 point losses will result in me losing my mind, and not patting the baby on the butt saying you tried and you're cute so everything is okay!
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