Preview: KU @ Rice

Source: Sporting News

Last season, the Rice Owls came into Lawrence, trailed and were worked for almost the entire game (the score was 24-13 Kansas with a little more than 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter) and beat the Jayhawks on a last second field goal, 25-24. The loss set the tone for both teams for the rest of the season. Rice went on to a bowl game and finished 7-6; Kansas, however, lost 11 straight.

Although the teams are different, this year's KU/Rice game could have similar implications. Rice comes into the game a little behind the eight-ball after losing a tough game to "Johnny Football" and the rest of the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. It's a little early to call it a must-win game, but the Owls sure feel like it is one with all the experience they return, or things could get a little sticky down south.

Kansas, on the other hand, will enter with the same win-total that they had all last year at 1-0. Unfortunately, the remainder of the schedule will pin Kansas as underdogs in most of the games, so KU needs to approach this game with a sense of urgency if it has any shot at going bowling this year. Can Kansas turn the tides and get a little revenge in this early road-test, or will Rice defend the home-field and send Kansas back to Lawrence in quasi-panic mode?

KU's road-struggles aren't easy to hide behind stats. In the last four years, Kansas has played 20 road games and lost all but one. September 12, 2009 against the UTEP Miners. Since then, Kansas has given up an average of 42 points per game, and scored only 15.

But if Kansas is going to take a page out of anybody's notebook about how to break a road losing streak, Rice would be that team.

Before the comeback in Lawrence, Rice was just 4-16 in "true" road openers and had lost 23 straight true road games versus BCS teams by an average of 27 points per game. Their last win against a BCS team was at Northwestern in 1997.

The Owls were just 1-17 in road games the three seasons before. Head coach David Bailiff was just 6-24 on away from Rice Stadium.

Rice really just hung in the game and waited for Kansas (Dayne Crist) to lose it. And they did.

This year, Kansas should play the same game. Dominate the time of possession, keep the Owls within arms length, and hope to force a turnover late.

QB Taylor McHargue, RB Charles Ross, and WR Jordan Taylor will certainly keep the defense busy tomorrow night, but Rice's defense will give Kansas opportunities. James Sims, Taylor Cox, and Darrian Miller should be able to get their leg workout in in the Houston heat, and Jake Heaps will have a chance to throw it around a little.

My keys to the game are simple and can be applied to almost any game, but particularly in this scenario when KU needs to break the road-funk:

Protect the football. Kansas needs to win the turnover battle on Saturday. They can't be giving Rice the ball in plus territory, and they can't blow long drives with mistakes. Defensively, if you get one or more turnovers, your looking really, really pretty.

Have success on first down. I have a lot more faith in Jake Heaps than I did in Dayne Crist or Michael Cummings last year, but I still don't feel comfortable with him or our wide-receivers in second and third down and long situations. Positive yardage on first and second downs, making for shorter third downs will go a long way in determining KU's success in Houston.

KU should be able to do both of those things, and if they do, this might a day where they can get a little road-moxie back.

Prediction:
Kansas 37
Rice 27