Debunking the "Talent" Myth

Source: Sports Illustrated

We follow recruiting religiously. Like, seriously. It is its own religious sect. It's own denomination. Sure, it's a much more common practice in the deep South, but here I sit with 7 tabs open on my browser. 6 of the 7 are KU Football recruits. The 7th is this blog, where I am writing about recruiting. Find a blog post where I don't talk about recruiting, or a specific recruit, and I will buy you a yearly subscription to something. I don't know what for, say, a college recruiting website? Point being, we invest countless hours following the game's next stars, praying, begging, that they bring their talents to our Alma mater. After thinking about it for a while, following college recruiting is a lot like breathing: you barely notice you do it, but if you stopped, you'd probably keel over and die. I mean, you guys follow college football recruiting a lot too, right? Like 2, 3, 9 hours a day, right? Guys? Sooooo, this will come to the chagrin of a lot of you, but SPOILER ALERT: identifying "talent" in a high school athlete is a bit of a crap shoot. Yes... I said it. I'm just as befuddled by that statement as you are. I don't want to believe that "stars" and other ranking gauges are not an exact science. I don't want to believe that our newly signed 3* linebacker doesn't actually run a 4.5 and can't bench the bar. But I have to. Here is why.


Before we get started, I want to conduct a little blind experiment. Row "A" and "B", below, contain two of the past 15 KU Football rosters. It may seem like a fairly toilsome task, but using a little intuitiveness, this task might be easier than you thought.


Rankings by rivals.com are on a scale of 1-5 stars, 5 being the best, and 4.9-6.1, 6.1 being the best. The closer to 4.9, the more likely the player is a "sleeper". The closer to 6.1, the more likely the player is a "franchise player". For more information on rivals.com's recruiting rubric, follow this link; otherwise, the quiz starts now. Good Luck.


A: 

• Quarterback: 3.75* and 5.75 RR
• Running Back: 3.5* and 5.73 RR
• Wide Receiver: 3.13* and 5.69 RR
• Tight End: 3.2* and 5.68 RR
• Offensive Line: 3* and 5.6 RR
• Defensive Line: 3.11* and 5.63 RR
• Linebacker: 3.14* and 5.61 RR
• Defensive Back: 3.33* and 5.67 RR

B:

• Quarterback: 2.5* and 5.45 RR
• Running Back: 3* and 5.6 RR
• Wide Receiver: 2.38* and 4.69 RR
• Tight End: 2* and 5.3 RR
• Offensive Line: 2.43* and 5.2 RR
• Defensive Line: 2.67* and 5.43 RR
• Linebacker: 2.43* and 5.37 RR
• Defensive Back: 2.67* and 5.43 RR

And here are your answers....






A. 2012-2013 Kansas Jayhawks

Source: The Wichita Eagle

The Tale of the Tape: The 2012-2013 Kansas Jayhawks have yet to play a game, but are coming off of a coaching change, just 2 wins, one of the worst defensive seasons in the history of College Football, and lose their best tackler, Steven Johnson.

*Starters Underlined


Quarterback (4):

Dayne Crist 5* 6.1 RR

Jake Heaps 4* 5.9 RR

Mike Cummings 3* 5.5 RR

Turner Baty 3* 5.5 RR

AVERAGE: 3.75* and 5.75 RR

Running Back (4):

Brandon Bourbon 4* 5.8 RR

Tony Pierson 4* 5.8 RR

James Sims 3* 5.7 RR

Marquis Jackson 3* 5.6 RR

AVERAGE: 3.5* and 5.73 RR

Wide Receiver (8):

Justin McCay 4* 6.0 RR

Ricki Herod 3* 5.7 RR

Erick McGriff 3* 5.7 RR

Daymond Patterson 3* 5.7 RR

JaCorey Shepherd 3* 5.6 RR

D.J. Beshears 3* 5.6 RR

Chris Omigie 3* 5.6 RR

Josh Ford 3* 5.6 RR

AVERAGE: 3.13* and 5.69 RR

Tight End (5):

Mike Ragone 4* 5.9 RR

Trent Smiley 3* 5.7 RR

Neal Barlow 3* 5.6 RR

Jimmay Mundine 3* 5.6 RR

Charles Brooks 3* 5.6 RR

AVERAGE: 3.2* and 5.68 RR

Offensive Line (7):

Dylan Admire 3* 5.6 RR

Tanner Hawkinson 3* 5.7 RR

Luke Luhrsen 3* 5.5 RR

Trevor Marrongelli 3* 5.5 RR

Duane Zlatnik 3* 5.6 RR

Bryan Peters 3* 5.6 RR

Brian Beckmann 3* 5.6 RR

AVERAGE: 3* and 5.6 RR

Defensive Line (10):

Toben Opurum 4* 5.8 RR

John Williams 3* 5.7 RR

Josh Williams 3* 5.7 RR

Keba Agostinho 3* 5.6 RR

Randall Dent 3* 5.6 RR

Pat Lewandowski 3* 5.6 RR

Ben Goodman 3* 5.6 RR

Kevin Young 3* 5.6 RR

Ty McKinney 3* 5.6 RR

Jordan Tavai 3* 5.5 RR

AVERAGE: 3.11* and 5.63 RR

Linebackers (7):

Anthony McDonald 4* 5.8 RR

Schyler Miles 3* 5.7 RR

Ben Heeney 3* 5.6 RR

Tunde Bakare 3* 5.6 RR

Courtney Arnick 3* 5.6 RR

Michael Reynolds 3* 5.5 RR

Huldon Tharp 3* 5.5 RR

AVERAGE: 3.14* and 5.61 RR

Defensive Backs (6):

Bradley McDougald 4* 5.8 RR

Prinz Kande 4* 5.8 RR

Dexter Linton 3* 5.7 RR

Greg Brown 3* 5.6 RR

Tyler Patmon 3* 5.6 RR

Greg Allen 3* 5.5 RR

AVERAGE: 3.33* and 5.67 RR

B. 2007-2008 Kansas Jayhawks: 12-1
              Orange Bowl Champions

Source: LJ World

The Tale of the Tape: The 2007-2008 Kansas Jayhawks went 12-1, won the Fed Ex Orange Bowl, had two All-Americans (Aqib Talib and Anthony Collins), and a quarterback in Todd Reesing, who threw for nearly 4,000 yards. 

*Starters Underlined


Quarterback (4):

Todd Reesing 3* 5.5 RR

Kerry Meier 3* 5.6 RR

A.J. Steward 2* 5.4 RR

Tyler Lawrence 2* 5.3 RR

AVERAGE: 2.5* and 5.45 RR

Running Back (4):

Brandon McAnderson 3* N/A RR

Jake Sharp 3* 5.6 RR

Angus Quigley 3* 5.6 RR

Carmon Boyd-Anderson 3* 5.6 RR

AVERAGE: 3* and 5.6 RR

Wide Receiver (8):

Marcus Henry 1* N/A RR

Dexton Fields 2* 5.3 RR

Dezmon Briscoe 3* 5.5 RR

Marcus Herford 3* 5.5 RR

Johnathan Wilson 2* 5.2 RR

Tertavian Ingram 3* 5.5 RR

Raimond Pendleton 3* 5.5 RR

Raymond Brown 2* 5.0 RR

AVERAGE: 2.38* and 4.69 RR

Tight End (5):

Marc Jones 3* N/A RR

Derek Fine 2* N/A RR

Bradley Dedeaux 3* 5.5 RR

Derek Spears 1* N/A RR

Micah Brown 1* N/A RR

AVERAGE: 2* and ≈ 5.3 RR

Offensive Line (7):

Ryan Cantrell 2* 5.1 RR

Sal Capra 2* 5.4 RR

Jose Rodriguez 3* 5.5 RR

Chet Hartley 3* 5.6 RR

Cesar Rodriguez 2* N/A RR

Anthony Collins 2* 5.1 RR

Adrian Mayes (Not Ranked, No Profile)

Marcus Anderson 3* N/A RR

AVERAGE: 2.43* and ≈ 5.2 RR

Defensive Line (10):

James McClinton 3* 5.7 RR

Caleb Blakesley 3* 5.5 RR

Todd Haselhorst 3* 5.5 RR

Russell Brorsen 2* 5.2 RR

Jeff Wheeler 2* 5.2 RR

John Larson (Not Ranked, No Profile)

Jake Laptad 2* 5.2 RR

Richard Johnson Jr. 3* 5.6 RR

Jamal Greene 3* 5.5 RR

Patrick Dorsey 3* 5.5 RR

AVERAGE: 2.67* and 5.43 RR

Linebackers (7):

Joe Mortensen 2* 5.3 RR

James Holt 2* 5.2 RR

Mike Rivera 3* 5.6 RR

Arist Wright 2* 5.2 RR

Justin Springer 3* 5.5 RR

Maxwell Onyegbule 3* 5.5 RR

Dakota Lewis 2* 5.3 RR

AVERAGE: 2.43* and 5.37 RR

Defensive Backs (6):

Chris Harris 2* 5.2 RR

Anthony Webb 4* 5.8 RR (Limited to Special Teams, so we will not count him)

Kendrick Harper 3* 5.5 RR

Justin Thornton 3* 5.5 RR

Patrick Resby 3* 5.7 RR

Darrell Stuckey 3* 5.5 RR

Aqib Talib 2* 5.2 RR

Sadiq Muhammed (Not Rated, No Profile)

AVERAGE: 2.67* and 5.43 RR


If rivals.com had the final word, the most "talented" Kansas Football team on paper, in the 12 years or so that they have been scouting top high school athletes, wasn't the 2005-2006 Fort Worth Bowl team, the 2008 Insight Bowl team, nor even the 2007-2008 Orange Bowl team. It's the 2012, team... Yes, Kansas has more "stars" on the 2012 roster, following a 2-10 team coached by simpleton, than any of the bowl champion teams coached by Mark Mangino. How? It just cannot be possible, and I would have trouble finding someone to argue with me. Maybe even more perplexing than that is, who, in their eyes, was the second most "talented" team? Don't say it... the 2011 Jayhawks. Today, I make it my job to dispel the credibility of college recruiting sites.

Now I'm kind of a numbers guy. I like empirical evidence. Charts. Graphs. Stats. But, for those that don't like the number-crunching, or the averages, continue reading. Rivals.com does have holes that cannot be seen just by looking at commitment lists.

For one, everyone looks good on his/her own highlight tape. If not, then College Football might not be your thing... For two, how do you compare a stud linebacker from the middle of nowhere, and a middling one from talent-rich Florida or Texas? How do you even compare players within the state of Texas? There is so much disparity between the level of competition played across the country. The University of Texas knows all about that problem...


UT offers a surfeit of players at their Junior Day each winter, and then proceed to haul in nearly all of them. Before March, they have already put the finishing touches on their recruiting class, and turn their attention to the next class. Before other schools even get a shot, Texas has leeched the state of its talent. Kansas knows that. Texas Tech knows that. Even A&M knows that. The Longhorns are the proverbial "early bird" that always gets the worm. Or so it thinks. Granted, the early bird often gets the worm, but sometimes, sometimes, the second mouse gets the cheese. Here's how Kansas can avoid the self-inflicted trap that the Longhorns find themselves caught in year in and year out.  

Rivals.com does a great job of analyzing film, no doubt, but it is just not realistic to think that they can "scout" every single player high school in the country. As much as we would like to think the rivals scouts are a separate entity from the Longhorn's scouts, they can't be. Rivals scouts simply have to cheat. When a player gets an early offer from Texas, he must, he has got to be the cream of the crop in the Lone Star State, one would think. And sometimes they are. The problem is that they often are not. They are often early bloomers, whose skills and athleticism are plateauing. Regardless, they are given 4, often 5, stars, and suddenly, magically, their offer sheet explodes. 

Players like Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, Todd Reesing, and Dezmon Briscoe, on the other hand, get overlooked by Texas, and fall into the laps of teams like Kansas. They are out there. Charlie Weis just has got to find them. Players like Garrett Gilbert, Jevan Snead, and Vondrell McGee, who have fizzled in the burnt orange, are also out there. Sure, it's going to happen. Texas is a dense football state, so it's expected that Mack Brown is going to swing and miss a few times, but it should not happen this often. Here is why it does.

The problem is that Texas often marries itself to juniors in high school, and cuts the cord with others far, far too early in the recruiting process. Yes, these are highly rated juniors with world class measureless, but once again, this is based mostly on their offer list. It is a double edged sword. While Texas may get first dibs, Kansas has the opportunity to build relationships that cannot be forged late in the game by a Texas or Oklahoma. These "under the radar" recruits are the players that Kansas must haul in. With a coach with an eye for talent, Kansas can hold serve. With a coach who can maximize that talent, Kansas can win… a lot. By all accounts, Charlie Weis is first. The second is TBD.

Kansas was without a doubt, very, very talented in 2007. It led the Big 12 and was second in the nation in points per game (42.8), and it led the Big 12 and was fourth in the nation in points allowed per game (16.4). The Hawks found themselves in a perfect maelstrom of experienced, hard working players, some good fortune, lack of injuries, and yes, a manageable schedule. Everyone conveniently forgets the talent. The Orange Bowl team placed numerous players in the NFL, including 7 current stars. Even with those pros on the roster, there were no five star contributors. There were no four star contributors. Kansas was a collection of relatively unknown prospects.

What made Kansas so good, and allowed them to win so many games, was that Kansas just wasn’t bad. Kansas could score with most teams, but when it needed to sit on the football and run some clock, it could. When the defense was getting stressed, it bent, but it didn’t break. Kansas was chameleon. Malleable. It knew how to fit the mold of the game, but at the same time, they knew how to play within themselves. They won games in the seventies, and others in the tens. They simply knew how to win football games.

That winning football came as a result of a lot of things, in large part because of smart, careful football. Kansas had a turnover margin of +21, leading the nation. While the defense was opportunistic, forcing 35 turnovers, fourth in the nation, the offense turned the ball over only 14 times, good for fourth in the country as well. Kansas valued the football and it paid off. In 2011, Kansas was 92^nd in turnover margin (-0.42), Kansas forced 18 turnovers, but turned the ball over 23 times. Not only did Kansas have trouble forcing turnovers, but they compounded those troubles with careless football.

  

Kansas was 5^th in the country in penalties in 2007, averaging only 39.1 yards per game. In 2011, they were 45^th (45.9). 15 yards per game can be the difference between points and no points. Last year, that could have been worth one, possibly two wins (Iowa State and Baylor come to mind).


After the storybook season in 2007, the 2008 Jayhawks fell back down a little closer to earth. Going 8-5 on the year, the Hawks netted a positive net turnover margin of only +4. And in 2009, they regressed below the mean, at -5. Not surprisingly, the productivity dropped with the increase in turnovers. The team's scoring output went from 42.8 ppg to 33.4 ppg to 29.4 ppg. The yards per play also dropped from 6.3 to 5.9 to 5.7. On defense, Kansas stopped fewer and fewer teams. 16.4 ppg to 28.8 ppg to 28.4 ppg. Average yards allowed per play went from 4.4 to 5.6 to 5.5.


The data show that teams with a positive double-digit turnover ration had the same or weaker records 76.9% of the time since 1996. It was only a matter of time before the 2007-2008 Jayhawks' luck ran out. But on the other hand, it is only a matter of time before some of Kansas' bad luck of the past two years runs out as well. Teams with a negative double-digit turnover ratio had the same or stronger records 81% of the time since 1996.


Penalties also saw a noticeable downtrend, or uptrend (?) for that matter. In 2007, Kansas was called for just 53 penalties for 508 yards, while opponents were called for 81 for 753. In 2008, they were flagged 62 times for 576, while opponents saw 75 for 589. And in 2009, it saw 72 for 586; opponents: 72 for 701.


Sure, Kansas has not been either too blessed or too smitten with luck, but after seasons of -5, -8, and -5 turnover margins, and being penalized for over twelve-hundred yards the past two seasons, you'd have to think that with good coaching, and less self-inflicted wounds, Kansas can right the ship.


Talent helps. You can't teach me to run 88 yards in 8 seconds like Tony Pierson. You also can't teach me to throw a frozen rope 50 yards like Dayne Crist. But, you can teach me to value the football. To throw it away if the play goes to crap. To stick with my assignment, and don't get caught out of position.


See, everybody has got talent...